Okayama, (Japan)

Below you can see the first four teams in the 2007 World Cup standing updated after eight matches.
On the right, the next three matches for the four team that, in my opinion, still have chances to get the three Olympic berths.

 

 

 

 

*In case of tie matches won and lost by two or more teams, the Points Ratio instead of the Sets Ratio, will be applied to establish the final ranking.

This decision was taken by FIVB Board of Administration in April-May 2005. The main aim was avoiding the possibility of choosing the favorite opponent managing the result of the matches. In the past it happened a very few times in tournaments with quarter final, semis and final. Controlling the Points Ratio it is almost impossible because each point, from the first match to the last, could be decisive.
For this reason, the best teams play every matches very resolutely, also against the much-weaker teams, trying to get the best Point Ratio.


Only statistics fans have to look at the next table.

After 8 matches only 1 point separates Bulgaria from USA (watch Point difference)
As said, the Ratio Point will be applied for the final Ranking but it’s necessary to look at the fourth decimal numbers to untie the two teams.



Watching the standing, Russia seems to have many opportunities to earn the qualification, although the next three matches (BUL, BRA, USA) are tougher than those in other teams calendar. Until now, Russians played in the “weaker” group and, from now on, they have to face the strongest squads.

Living in the same hotel with the teams and spending much time with them, I try to share with you their emotions.

How do Russian players feel just two days before the crucial match with Bulgaria? Or who is more worried?

Let’s start from the most settled teams:

As usual, Brazil is playing the tournament with a great strength of mind. After the defeat with USA, they got back their winning pace, turning to be the favorite team to win the 2007 World Cup. In the video interview with Gustavo that I’ll post the day after tomorrow, the wonderful Brazilian middle blocker said that his dream is to win another gold medal in Beijing Olympic Games. I believe that he and his team mates are enough confident to be there!

USA swept away Australia in the last match playing once more a very consistent game. They don’t show any hints of worries, even after the unpredictable defeats in the First Round with Porto Rico and Spain.
This morning, just before the match, I met Marv Dunphy who is in Japan as USA team manager.

But please don’t forget that:

...in 1984, Marv Dunphy was selected by USA Volleyball to coach the USA Men's National Team through 1988. During Dunphy's four year, the American squad maintained a No. 1 world ranking and compiled an impressive overall record of 197-31. Additionally, the team won nearly every major international tournament, including the 1985 World Cup, the 1986 World Championships, the 1987 Pan American Games, and the 1988 Olympic Gold Medal in Seoul. Then he agreed to act as an assistant coach at the 2000 Olympics in Sydney and again during the 2004 Olympics in Greece. Furthermore in 1994, coach Dunphy was inducted into the Volleyball Hall of Fame!

I asked him how they feel and which are their hopes for the last crucial match with Russia. He looked at me surprised and said: “the match with Russia? We are thinking only at this match with Australia.”

These are the usual words that any coach and player often repeat but said by him are utterly trustworthy.

And now is the turn of the more nervous teams.

Russia and Bulgaria are living similar emotions, even if Russia is still unbeaten and Bulgaria record is 6-2 (won-lost). Both squads are unpredictable, both are excellent in serving, attacking and blocking but lack of team organization.
The next match, Friday 30TH Nov in Tokyo, will be “the match” for them.

If Russia will win, Alenkno’s players could likely celebrate the qualification, whilst Bulgaria could rely only on the US team results.
Moreover, Martin Stoev (BUL coach) is deeply concerned because in Bulgaria hardly anyone can remember the last victory with Russia. Last year Bulgarians won a friendly match but then, in the official tournaments, they were ever overpowered.

Such a doubt is unbearable, thus I asked Stanislav Shevchenko, the Russian Volleyball Federation Vice president. “The last Russian defeat with Bulgaria I remember was when I was still a player, more or less 12 years ago” he said

But from Bulgaria side, Ilian Kaziyski, Matey Kaziyski’s father, told me that actually the last victory dates back to 10 July 2003 during the World league in Madrid (BUL-RUS 3-1).

The odds are for Russia and I’m really surprise by the worry of Russian players. Probably the memory of the shocking defeat in the European Championship Final with Spain is still too close.

No one asked me but, if I should forecast the winner, I would stake on Russia.

Bye bye andrea zorzi